Taiwan Elections: Navigating the Democracy-Security Dilemma

By Wong Rui Yik and Isaac Sim

Image Source: The Economist

Results:

Presidency: Lai Ching-te (DPP)

Legislative Yuan total seat count: 113, 57 seats required for a majority

KMT (right-wing political party): 52 Seats (14 seat gain)

DPP (centre-left political party): 51 Seats (10 seat loss, majority lost)

TPP (centre-left political party): 8 seats (3 seat gain)

Final Result: Lai Ching-te is the new President, governing with a split Legislative Yuan with a KMT minority government.

Taiwan’s Democracy-Security struggle is best captured in its confused election results: the presidency, helmed by Lai Ching-te of the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP); the parliament, dominated by the pro-security Kuomintang (KMT). Democracy is especially dangerous when the state’s existence is perpetually threatened. The People’s Republic of China (PRC)—the foremost threat to Taiwan’s existence—ironically described the election very aptly: a question of peace and war (Lee and Blanchard 2024). Don’t take the PRC’s word for it? Two days after the presidential election, the small pacific island nation of Nauru severed its ties with Taiwan in place of the PRC—further delegitimising Taiwan’s existence to the international community, and hence—undermining security (Hart et al. 2024). A step forward for democracy is almost always a step backwards for security in Taiwan.

Taiwanese politics is based upon a zero-sum mentality. Stemming from its history in authoritarianism (often a life-and-death struggle), Taiwanese politicians often view their struggle as a matter of life-and-death—room for concessions is room for losing at the next election (Schubert 2024). This leads to the death of compromise in the Taiwanese government, best represented by the constant—more often physical than verbal—confrontations in the legislative chambers. This, combined with a hung parliament never-before-seen since 2004, produces a deadly formula: a politics-obsessed Taiwan—without any careful navigation through the democracy-security dilemma—on a runaway train towards demise.