US Elections: The Worst Bluff in American Democracy
Re-published post-mortem. First Written and published on July 11, 2024.
Projected Results as of July 2024:
Presidency: (as per the Economist)
Trump (with a ¾ chance)
Biden (with a ¼ chance)
House of Representatives: (based on The Hill predictions) 66% chance of Republicans attaining a majority in the House.
Senate: (based on The Hill predictions) 82% Chance of Republicans attaining a majority in the Senate
The Economist Presidential prediction website: https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-2024-election/prediction-model/president
The Hill Congressional prediction website:
When Alexander Hamilton wrote in Federalist 70: “energy in the executive is the leading character in the definition of good government” (Hamilton 1788), he might not have accounted for the possibility of Joe Biden—widely agreed to be the antithesis of energetic—taking the helm of the Executive Branch of government.
Of course, while a literal interpretation of “energetic” was clearly not the intent of Federalist 70, Biden is still likely to lead his party to lose everything.
It seems easy to forget that Biden—or any other democratic nominee in his shoes—has been dealt good cards. With an incumbency advantage and a predecessor which he has beaten before facing him again, Biden’s election campaign faces many challenges that have been dealt with before. Looking beyond just the presidency, Republicans have also had a poor showing in Congress—paralyzing the House for a record-breaking 22 days in October 2023 due to party infighting over choosing a new House Speaker. (Quinn 2023) In the primaries, Biden had the advantage of a united electorate with little opposition candidates (the most opposition coming from voters choosing undecided, at worst), whilst Trump faced bruising competition in his respective primary—risking alienating his voter base even through he eventually clinched the party nomination.
This begs the question: how did it get so bad?
In a country like the United States, identity and personality politics reign supreme, and maintaining a strong image is integral to capturing the votes of the electorate. Unfortunately for the democrats, “strong”, “charismatic”, and “suave” aren't locutions usually associated with Biden; whom - in the recent presidential debates, showcased his inability to even stay on topic, to over 50 million Americans.
While Trump hasn’t had the best of showings either, if there’s one thing history has taught us: it’s that politics isn't about being the good, it's about being better. In a United States wracked by economic slowdown, increasing political disillusionment, and receding hegemony over the international stage: it’s not surprising that many would vote for Trump. In spite of the innumerable skeletons he's chosen to display outside his closet, a substantial degree of Americans believe he's a better alternative to someone likened to a corpse.
Across the Aisle, the Republicans are amassing a dangerous—and to some, unconstitutional—degree of power, even without having an incumbent advantage. A win in the Judicial Branch, in the form of Trump v. USA, is the first wave in a stream of Republican wins for Trump.
Trump v. USA set a powerful precedent for further unchecked power for Trump to take similar drastic measures—deeming that: (1) all official acts taken by the president are entitled to presumptive immunity, (2) and all decisions that fall within the strict constitutional authority of the presidency are “absolutely” shield from prosecution. It is hence no coincidence that all Republican appointed justices stood in solidarity with this 6-3 decision by the Supreme Court; of course, this decision was voted along ideological lines. (United States Supreme Court 2024) The Supreme Court appears to be rolling the carpet for Trump to take the helm of the Executive.
If the election were to be held tomorrow—on a balance of probabilities—Trump may have unchecked power throughout the three branches of government: an Executive branch, with a presidency protected by a wide scope of immunity granted through Trump v. USA; a Legislative branch, with a Republican House and Senate; and a Judicial Branch with a majority of Republican-dominated justices—which have been shown to swing in favor of Trump.
Will Biden even ever see this tomorrow?
The United States elections has since undergone drastic updates. Read our breaking news articles here:
Bibliography
Hamilton, Alexander. “Founders Online: The Federalist No. 70, [15 March 1788].” founders.archives.gov, n.d. https://founders.archives.gov/documents/Hamilton/01-04-02-0221.
Quinn, Melissa. “Timeline: Republicans’ Chaotic Search for a New House Speaker.” Cbsnews.com. CBS News, October 24, 2023. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/house-speaker-vote-republicans-timeline.
Supreme Court of the United States. “SUPREME COURT of the UNITED STATES Syllabus TRUMP v. UNITED STATES CERTIORARI to the UNITED STATES COURT of APPEALS for the DISTRICT of COLUMBIA CIRCUIT,” 2024. https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/23pdf/23-939_e2pg.pdf.
The Economist. “Trump v Biden: The Economist’s Presidential Election Prediction Model.” The Economist, n.d. https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-2024-election/prediction-model/president.